Six Weeks Ago, the US and Israel Launched the Largest Strike on Iran in History
On February 28, 2026, Operation "Epic Fury" and "Roaring Lion" hit nearly 900 targets in 12 hours. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. Nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan were degraded. Iran's navy was destroyed. Three million Iranians are displaced. Oil hit $120/barrel.
Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against US bases, Israel, and Gulf states. After six weeks of escalating conflict, a fragile ceasefire began April 7-8. But the US imposed a naval blockade on April 13, peace talks in Islamabad have stalled, and sanctions waivers expire on April 19.
We put every major actor - from Trump to Khamenei's successor to the Houthi leadership - into a MiroFish simulation and asked: what happens in the next 90 days?
The Situation as of April 16
The scale of this conflict is staggering. Iran has suffered 2,076-7,300+ killed, 26,500+ injured, and an estimated $300 billion in reconstruction costs. Israel absorbed missile strikes (23-39 killed, 5,000-7,263 injured). Fifteen American service members are dead. Oil disrupted 20% of global supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
And somewhere in Iran, 440.9 kg of 60%-enriched uranium sits in an unknown location - enough for multiple weapons if enriched further.
The Three Scenarios (Probability-Weighted)
The simulation produced remarkably consistent probability estimates across all agents - US, Iran, Israel, mediators, and observers. When adversaries independently agree on probabilities, the forecast carries weight.
Scenario 1: Ceasefire Extended but Unstable (50%)
The most likely outcome. The ceasefire survives in form but is violated repeatedly in practice:
- Semi-autonomous proxy attacks (Iraqi militias against US assets)
- Maritime harassment in the Strait of Hormuz
- Houthi threats to close Bab al-Mandeb (used as leverage, not fully executed)
- Information warfare spiking shipping insurance premiums
Scenario 2: Ceasefire Collapses (35%)
The ceasefire breaks through an incident chain, not a deliberate decision:
- 1Proxy attack kills American service members (most likely from Kataeb Hezbollah in Iraq)
- 2US launches "limited" retaliatory strikes - framed as defensive
- 3Iran responds via maritime coercion and proxy escalation - creating a spiral
Oil: $110-140/barrel. Nuclear breakout risk rises sharply.
Scenario 3: Movement Toward Permanent Deal (15%)
Requires simultaneous breakthroughs: verifiable nuclear disarmament, missile limits, proxy cessation, sanctions relief, and security guarantees. Mediators describe themselves as "risk managers, not peace architects" - they can prevent collapse but cannot deliver a grand bargain in 90 days.
Oil: $85-100/barrel. Normalizing.
What the Key Actors Said
The simulation's agent quotes read like intelligence cables.
Trump is seeking an exit that doesn't look like a concession: "We're getting very close to meeting our military objectives." The blockade is his leverage tool.
Mojtaba Khamenei (Ali Khamenei's son, the new Supreme Leader) is consolidating power under the most severe crisis in the Islamic Republic's history. His nuclear threat is conditional: breakout probability rises when economic oxygen is cut off AND leadership targeting resumes.
Netanyahu's concern is that Trump seeks an early exit, leaving Israel to manage the aftermath alone. His red line is clear: no deal that leaves enriched uranium unaccounted for.
Critical Decision Points (Next 90 Days)
April 17-19: Islamabad. If talks produce any framework (even vague), the ceasefire extends. If they collapse, the April 19 sanctions cliff dominates.
April 19: Sanctions Cliff. When waivers expire, Iran's oil exports are further strangled. This is when Tehran's calculus shifts - toward concessions or toward escalation.
Late April-May: Proxy Test Period. Iraqi militias will probe the ceasefire. If an attack kills Americans, the re-escalation ladder activates.
May-June: Nuclear Window. IAEA access (or lack thereof) determines whether the "hidden stockpile" narrative drives Israeli preemptive action.
June-July: Stabilization or Frozen Conflict. By July, the trajectory becomes clear: managed diplomatic process, or a frozen conflict with persistent low-level violence.
The Non-Obvious Insight: Semi-Autonomous Proxy Risk
The simulation's most important finding is structural: the ceasefire is more likely to be killed by semi-autonomous proxy actions than by a deliberate decision from either Washington or Tehran.
Both capitals have incentives to maintain the pause. But the system has too many fast-acting nodes - Iraqi militia factions competing to prove "resistance" credentials, Houthi leaders weighing Tehran pressure against Yemeni influence, Navy vessels executing standing blockade missions - for the ceasefire to be reliably governed from the top.
The highest-probability path to re-escalation is not a phone call from Trump or Khamenei ordering resumed strikes. It is a Kataeb Hezbollah drone that kills three Marines at a base in Iraq, launched by a local commander operating under the broadest possible interpretation of his authority.
That is the scenario every mediator in the simulation fears most - and the one no ceasefire text can prevent.
Early Warning Indicators
Signs the ceasefire is holding: Islamabad produces any written framework. Sanctions waiver extended past April 19. IAEA announces inspection access. Maritime incidents decrease. No American casualties.
Signs of collapse: Drone/missile attack on US forces. Verified commercial vessel attacked in Hormuz. War-risk insurance premiums spike >50% in a week. Houthi rhetoric shifts from "considering" to "executing." IAEA reports total loss of monitoring at Isfahan.
Signs of a deal: Iran offers enrichment freeze. US extends waiver and eases blockade. IAEA inspectors granted access to Isfahan underground facility. Multi-party framework signed.
Economic Forecast
| Scenario | Oil ($/barrel) | US Gas ($/gal) | Hormuz | Global GDP Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended ceasefire (50%) | $95-115 | $3.80-4.30 | Constrained | -0.2 to -0.4% |
| Collapse (35%) | $110-140 | $4.50-5.50 | Highly disrupted | -0.4 to -0.8% |
| Permanent deal (15%) | $85-100 | $3.50-4.00 | Reopening | -0.1 to -0.2% |
What This Means
This is a live forecast. We will score these predictions against reality as events unfold through July 2026. The simulation gives decision-makers a probability-weighted map of what comes next - not certainty, but structured uncertainty that's better than guessing.
If you're in energy, defense, shipping, insurance, or any sector exposed to Middle East risk, this is the scenario landscape. The question isn't whether disruption continues - it's which disruption path materializes.
49 agents. 1,513 interactions. 50 rounds. Every data point from publicly available sources as of April 16, 2026. This is a forward-looking forecast that will be scored against unfolding events. Want to simulate a geopolitical or strategic scenario? Email us.