We Predicted What
CEOs Could Not.
Hundreds of AI agents. One simulated environment.Every stakeholder, competitor, and market reacting to your decision.Stop guessing. Start simulating.
See the Agents Think
Each node is an AI agent with unique incentives and logic - hover to see what they said
Visualization of a multi-agent simulation - consumers, investors, competitors, restaurants, and media interacting across 30 rounds
The Proof
Directional accuracy across 10 case studies
Zomato Fee Hike
Liberation Day Tariffs
Meta Policy Change
IIMA Blended MBA Launch
Oracle 30K Layoffs
HP-Autonomy Acquisition
Quibi Launch
JC Penney Fair & Square
Meta Metaverse Pivot
S&P 500 2024 Forecast
Only publicly available pre-event documents. No proprietary data. Click any row to see predictions vs. reality.
All seed documents, ground truth data, and accuracy scores are derived from publicly verifiable sources - news reports, SEC filings, earnings calls, and official announcements. Every claim can be independently verified.
Would We Have Warned Them?
Every wrong decision was once someone's best guess
JC Penney
$985M Loss"Customers want honest pricing. We didn't test at Apple, we don't need to test here."
- Ron Johnson, CEO
EDLP logic fails in department stores. Coupon-trained customers lose their 'trip reason.' Traffic collapses first.
Same-store sales crashed 32%. $985M net loss. Johnson fired after 17 months.
We Would Have Warned Them
HP-Autonomy
$8.8B Write-Down"$11B for Autonomy will accelerate HP's software pivot."
- HP Board + Leo Apotheker
Immediate market rejection. 6-hour due diligence creates credibility crisis. CEO survival unlikely beyond 12 months.
Stock dropped 20% day one. Apotheker fired in 35 days. $8.8B write-down. Decade of litigation.
We Would Have Warned Them
Quibi
$1.75B Burned"$1.75B from top investors proves premium short-form mobile content works."
- Katzenberg + Whitman
Front-loaded adoption fails at 'conversion hinge.' Mobile-only + no social = no habit formation.
500K subscribers vs 7.4M target. Shut down in 6 months. Sold to Roku for under $100M.
We Would Have Warned Them
What Would You Simulate?
Every card is a real question a client has asked - or could ask tomorrow
“How will customers react to a 15% price increase?”
“Will new tariffs crash the market or get walked back?”
“Will this product launch succeed or burn through cash?”
“Will this acquisition be worth the premium?”
“Will this bold strategy pivot work or alienate our base?”
“How will the public react to our announcement?”
“What happens to morale and talent after mass layoffs?”
“Where will the market land this year?”
“How will voters respond to this policy or message?”
If your decision involves stakeholders who react to each other, we can simulate it.
How It Works
From scenario to strategic report in 5-7 days
Data Collection
We gather intelligence from 50+ public sources - government filings, SEC reports, news archives, social discourse, academic research, and market data. No guesswork, no single-source dependency.
Every fact is cross-referenced. Every claim is sourced.
Knowledge Graph
AI extracts every entity, relationship, and causal link from your scenario - building a structured map of who influences whom and why.
Typically 30-50 entities with 100+ relationships.
Agent Generation
Each entity becomes an AI agent with a unique persona - distinct incentives, memory, behavioral logic, and decision-making style. No two agents think alike.
30-50 agents per simulation, each with a full profile.
Multi-Round Simulation
Agents interact across 30 rounds in a simulated social environment - posting, reacting, debating, forming coalitions, and shifting opinions. What takes months in the real world surfaces in hours.
Typically 500-1,500+ interactions per simulation.
Strategic Report
Our analysts interpret the simulation output, validate against known patterns, and deliver actionable recommendations - not just data, but decisions.
Human + AI analysis. The Centaur advantage.
5-7 days. Not 5-7 months.
From scenario to strategic report - months of market dynamics compressed into days. Why guess when you can see?
How We Gather Intelligence
Every simulation starts with rigorous, multi-source data collection - not opinions, not guesswork
Government & Regulatory Filings
Executive orders, budget documents, policy drafts, court rulings, FTC filings
Financial Data & SEC Filings
Earnings transcripts, 10-K reports, analyst notes, stock performance, fund flows
News & Media Archives
Reuters, Bloomberg, Economic Times, WSJ, industry publications, press releases
Social Discourse & Sentiment
Reddit threads, Twitter/X discussions, LinkedIn posts, forum debates, review sites
Market & Industry Research
Kantar surveys, YouGov data, Mordor Intelligence, Statista, Pew Research, IMF reports
Academic & Peer-Reviewed Sources
ArXiv papers, Harvard Business Review, Stanford HAI, NBER working papers
From raw data to simulation-ready intelligence
Collect
Multi-source data harvesting from 50+ public databases and archives
Structure
AI-assisted entity extraction and relationship mapping via GraphRAG
Validate
Cross-reference verification - no single source, no unverified claims
Simulate
Structured data feeds the knowledge graph that powers agent reasoning
What We Find That Others Miss
Silent Frequency Collapse
Small orders quietly vanish, degrading delivery density before anyone notices revenue loss.
Bond Market Stress
The real reason Trump paused tariffs - the bond market, not the stock market.
Notes Wars
The new battleground is annotation legitimacy, not content removal.
Paper Capacity vs Rack Capacity
Backlog grows as financial artifact while delivery is constrained by physics.
The Conversion Hinge
When 'free' ends, users evaluate value simultaneously - creating a synchronized churn cliff.
Concentration Fragility
Magnificent 7 drove 55% of returns - the index was less diversified than it appeared.
Silent Frequency Collapse
Small orders quietly vanish, degrading delivery density before anyone notices revenue loss.
Bond Market Stress
The real reason Trump paused tariffs - the bond market, not the stock market.
Notes Wars
The new battleground is annotation legitimacy, not content removal.
Paper Capacity vs Rack Capacity
Backlog grows as financial artifact while delivery is constrained by physics.
The Conversion Hinge
When 'free' ends, users evaluate value simultaneously - creating a synchronized churn cliff.
Concentration Fragility
Magnificent 7 drove 55% of returns - the index was less diversified than it appeared.
Could we have warned your company?
Describe the scenario you're facing. We'll simulate how your stakeholders, competitors, and markets will react - and deliver the strategic forecast in days. Know before they do.
[email protected] - We respond within 24 hours